Effectiveness and Determinants of Water Security Programs in Northern Kenya

Comprehensive Exam — Thesis Proposal

Styvers Kirimi Kathuni
Department of Civil, Environmental, and Architectural Engineering
University of Colorado Boulder
April 2026
1

Presentation Outline

~30 Minutes

  • Background & Research Needs — The problem of rural water sustainability in ASAL regions (5 min)
  • The DRIP FUNDI Program — Empirical case and preliminary findings (4 min)
  • Research Questions & Hypotheses — Three interconnected studies (3 min)
  • Research Plan — Study design, methods, instruments, and analysis (10 min)
  • Schedule & Budget — Timeline and resource requirements (2 min)
  • Discussion — Committee questions (5 min)
2

Background & Research Needs

3

The Crisis of Rural Water Sustainability

30-40%
Non-functional
Boreholes across sub-Saharan Africa
50%+
E. coli Positive
At point of collection in N. Kenya
75%
HH Contamination
At household point of use
4
~2 min

Gaps in Current Evidence

Monitoring & IoT

Sensors reduce downtime detection, but does monitoring alone improve outcomes? Or only when embedded in responsive institutions?

O&M Models

CBM critiqued extensively. Hybrid professional-community models show promise but lack rigorous comparative evaluation in ASAL contexts.

Water Quality

Uptime gets attention; microbial quality at POU remains understudied. Relationship between O&M programs and water quality is poorly understood.

HWISE

Validated 12-item cross-cultural instrument, but few studies link HWISE outcomes to specific programmatic interventions in ASAL settings.

WTP & Governance

DCE and best-worst scaling rarely applied in N. Kenya, where public rural water companies introduce new governance dynamics.

Life Cycle Costs

Performance-based financing is emerging but empirical evidence on effectiveness in ASAL contexts is limited.

5
~5 min

The DRIP FUNDI Program

Drought Resilience Impact Platform — Functionality, Uptime, Network Diagnostics, and Intelligence

260
Boreholes
Across 2 phases
5
Counties
Turkana, Isiolo, Marsabit, Wajir, Garissa
153
Virridy Sensors
Real-time monitoring since 2017
195K
Beneficiaries
Target population

Phase 1 — USAID BHA ($2M)

200 boreholes · Sep 2023 – Mar 2025 · Layered with RAPID+ and STAWI Mashinani

Phase 2 — Coca-Cola Foundation ($648K)

60 boreholes · May – Sep 2025 · Continued RAPID+ integration

6
~7 min

Five Integrated Components

7

Preliminary Results

Baseline (Feb 2024) vs. Endline (May 2025)

Borehole Uptime
84.4%
85.7%
Target: 90% — Not achieved
96-hr Repair Target
2.4%
Only 2.4% of repairs within 96 hours
Median Repair Time
7–29 d
Turkana (7d) to Garissa (29d)
E. coli at Source
50.4%
Positive at point of collection (baseline)
HH E. coli
74.6%
Positive at household POU (baseline)

Partial effectiveness → ideal case for studying determinants of success and failure

8
~9 min

Research Questions & Hypotheses

9

Research Framework

Study 1 / RQ 1
WHAT
How effective is DRIP FUNDI?
Uptime, HWISE, Water Quality
Study 2 / RQ 2
WHY
What makes it work?
Institutional, financial, technological
Study 3 / RQ 3
SO WHAT
Generalizable insights
for climate-stressed communities
10

Hypotheses

H1 — Effectiveness

DRIP FUNDI's integrated model will produce statistically significant improvements: >92% uptime, ≥15% increase in dry-season water access (HWISE), and ≤10 CFU/100mL E. coli at intervention vs. non-intervention sites.

H2 — Determinants

Effectiveness is primarily driven by trusted management structures, performance-linked financing, and responsive O&M with water treatment. Households prefer local WMC over public water companies at equivalent service levels.

H3 — Generalizability

A consistent suite of determinants will predict sustained water security across climate-stressed contexts, yielding transferable design and policy principles for ASAL regions.

11
~12 min

Research Plan

12

Study Design

Descriptive cross-sectional quantitative design with mixed-methods qualitative component, supported by historical data analysis (2017–2026).

300
Households
Randomly sampled
5
Counties
ASAL, northern Kenya
12 mo
Study Period
May 2026 – May 2027
3
Outcome Domains
Uptime, HWISE, Water Quality

Borehole Categorization (Dose-Response)

13
~14 min

Multi-Level Data Collection

LevelInstrumentMethodSampleDuration
HouseholdSurvey + HWISE + DCEQuantitative300 HH25 min
OperatorSemi-structured KIIQualitativeEach borehole15–20 min
CommunityFocus group discussionQualitative6–10/group20–25 min
CommitteeFocus group discussionQualitative6–10 WMC20–25 min
InstitutionalSemi-structured KIIQualitativeCounty/NGO15–20 min
ComparativeKII (ANTHC, Alaska)QualitativeANTHC reps
InfrastructureObservation checklistQuantitativeEach borehole
Water QualityAquagenix CBTQuantitativeAll boreholes
HistoricalVirridy sensor dataQuantitative2017–2026N/A
14
~16 min

Household Survey Instrument

Structured 25-minute survey administered via mWater on handheld devices in local languages.

A
Consent
2 min
B
HH Info
3 min
C
Water Source
2 min
D
Access
4 min
E
O&M
5 min
F-G
Quality & Mgmt
7 min
H-J
HWISE + DCE
13 min

HWISE Scale (12 items)

Worry, interruption, clothes, plans, food, hands, body, drink, angry, sleep, none, shame. Scored 0–36 (4-point frequency, 1-month recall).

Discrete Choice Experiment

Local WMC (same tariff) vs. public water company (doubled tariff) at equivalent service. Tests governance preference and WTP for management change.

15
~18 min

Qualitative Methods

Key Informant Interviews

County Officers & NGO Staff

Repair organization, financing models, monitoring, what limits sustained functionality

Borehole Operators

Breakdown causes, repair chain, delay factors (parts, technicians, funding, security, climate)

ANTHC (Alaska Comparative)

Indigenous governance, cultural dimensions, climate resilience in Arctic communities

Focus Group Discussions

Community Water Users

Herders & farmers, 6–10/group, gender-segregated. Reliability trust, quality trust, WTP, program perceptions.

No mention of DRIP FUNDI unless respondents raise it (bias reduction)

Water Management Committees

6–10 WMC members. Step-by-step repair process mapping, financing adequacy, management challenges.

16
~20 min

Data Analysis Plan

Phase 1: Descriptive

  • Mean, median, SD, IQR by county and program status
  • Spatial mapping (kernel density, Moran's I)

Phase 2: Inferential

  • t-tests, ANOVA, chi-square
  • OLS/Beta regression (uptime)
  • Ordered Logit (HWISE)
  • Logistic regression (WQ)
  • DiD models (2017–2026)

Phase 3: Integration

  • DCE: conditional & mixed logit
  • Thematic content analysis (KII/FGD)
  • WSEI composite index (0–1)
  • Triangulation
Water Security Effectiveness Index (WSEI)

Composite 0–1 index from z-score normalized uptime, HWISE, and microbial safety with expert-validated weights. Internal consistency via Cronbach's α.

17
~22 min

Methodological Safeguards

Bias Reduction

Community FGD guide prohibits mentioning DRIP FUNDI unless respondents raise it. Prevents leading questions and social desirability bias.

Gender Sensitivity

FGDs gender-segregated (male, female, youth). Same-gender facilitators and note-takers. Accommodates cultural and religious norms.

Linguistic Access

All instruments in Somali, Borana, Turkana, Rendile, Samburu. 20 locally recruited enumerators. Verbal consent in local language.

Triangulation

Quantitative HH data + qualitative FGD/KII + observation + water quality lab results + 9 years of historical sensor data.

18
~23 min

Schedule & Budget

19

Research Timeline

PhasePeriodActivities
IRB & PreparationApr–May 2026Ethics approval, instrument piloting, enumerator training
Data Collection (Wave 1)Jun–Aug 2026HH surveys, KIIs, FGDs, water quality testing
Preliminary AnalysisSep–Oct 2026Data cleaning, descriptive analysis
Data Collection (Wave 2)Nov 2026–Jan 2027Second drought-season data collection
Full AnalysisFeb–May 2027Statistical analysis, qualitative coding
Synthesis (Study 3)Jun–Aug 2027Literature synthesis, comparative analysis
Writing & RevisionSep 2027–Feb 2028Dissertation writing, committee review
DefenseSpring 2028Dissertation defense
20
~24 min

Estimated Budget

CategoryItemCost (USD)
Salary20 enumerators (3 months) + research assistant$20,000
EquipmentAquagenix test kits (500) + tablets for mWater$8,000
SuppliesSample materials, printing, communication$3,500
Travel5 counties × 2 waves + conferences$16,000
OtherSoftware, transcription, translation$4,500
Total$52,000

Note: Virridy sensor infrastructure and DRIP FUNDI program costs covered by existing USAID BHA and Coca-Cola Foundation funding.

21
~25 min

Collaborating Institutions

Lead

University of Colorado Boulder

PI: Karl Linden
Co-PI: Evan Thomas
Co-PI: Denis Muthike

Kenya

Millennium Water Alliance

Program implementation
Field coordination
Community engagement

Comparative Sites

University of British Columbia (Canada)
Oslo School of Architecture (Norway)
Oxfam (South Sudan)
Lytton First Nation (Canada)
ANTHC (Alaska)

Funded by National Science Foundation, Virridy, and Millennium Water Alliance. Data not shared between institutions — results compared across sites.

22

Expected Contributions

Academic

  • First HWISE-linked evaluation of a multi-component O&M program in ASAL Kenya
  • Empirical test of monitoring + institutional responsiveness interaction
  • DCE evidence on governance preferences in Kenya's northern counties
  • WSEI composite index for cross-context program comparison

Practical

  • Actionable policy recommendations for WASH program design
  • Toolkit for scaling effective governance and management models
  • Transferable design principles for O&M in sub-Saharan Africa
  • Evidence base for climate adaptation in community water supplies
23
~27 min

Thank You

Questions & Discussion

Styvers Kirimi Kathuni
styvers.kathuni@colorado.edu
Department of Civil, Environmental, and Architectural Engineering
University of Colorado Boulder
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